Climate Change Course

Climate Change. Animal Science, La Trobe University, 2011. Dr Gideon Polya.

A. Man-made global warming and GHGs.

1. Earth’s atmosphere: troposphere (surface to 9 km at poles, 17 km at equator); stratosphere (from tropopause boundary to 50 km; UV-absorbing O₃ layer); mesosphere (from stratopause boundary out to 80-85 km; where most meteors burn up); ionosphere (from 50 km out to 1,000 km; solar radiation ionizes molecules).

2. Dry air composition: 78% nitrogen (N₂) 21% oxygen (O₂), 0.9% argon (Ar), 0.04% CO_{2 .} Air typically has about 1% water (H₂O) and increases with temperature in the range 0.01% (dry, polar) to 20% (humid tropical).

3. Greenhouse effect: thermal radiation from sun absorbed by surface and air; re-emitted and reflected light absorbed & re-radiated by air molecules, notably carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O), methane (CH₄), H₂O, man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs). Greenhouse effect (John Tyndall, 1858, UK) keeps planet warm. CO₂-equivalent (CO₂e): total GHGs including CO₂ and other GHGs.

4. Radiative forcing and Global Warming Potential (GWP) of GHGs. Radiative forcing measures warming (positive) effects of e.g. GHGs and carbon particles and cooling (negative ) effects of e.g. sulphate aerosols and reflectivity (albedo) of ice, snow and clouds. Relative GWP based on infra-red (IR) absorbance properties and half-life in atmosphere is directly proportional to radiative forcing and inversely proportional to half-life in the atmosphere.

GWP relative to same mass of CO₂ on a 20 year time frame: CO₂ (1.0), CH₄ (79; 105 if aerosol impacts are considered), N₂O (289), chlorofluorohydrocarbon CFC-12, CCl₂F₂ (11,000), hydrofluorohydrocarbon HFC-22, CHClF₂ (5,160), hydrofluorohydrocarbon HFC-23, CHF₃ (12,000), sulphur hexafluoride SF₆ (16,300), nitrogen trifluoride NF₃ (12,300).

GWP relative to same mass of CO₂ (1.0) on a 100 year time frame: CO₂ (1.0), CH₄ (25), N2O (298), chlorofluorohydrocarbon CFC-12, CCl₂F₂ (10,900), hydrofluorohydrocarbon HFC-22, CHClF₂ (1,810), hydrofluorohydrocarbon HFC-23, CHF₃ (14,800), sulphur hexafluoride SF₆ (22,800), nitrogen trifluoride NF₃ (17,200).

5. O₃-destroying chlorofluorohydrocarbons (CFCs) such as chlorofluorohydrocarbon CFC-12, CCl₂F₂ were replaced under the Montreal Convention (1987) by hydrofluorohydrocarbon refrigerants and propellants such as hydrofluorohydrocarbon HFC-23 (CHF₃) but the HFCs are now posing an increasing threat because of their increasing use and high GWP.

6. CO₂ is the major contributor to anthropogenic global warming (AGW), deriving from aerobic respiration involving oxidation of carbohydrate ( (CH₂O)_n + O₂ -> n CO₂ + nH₂O), lime (CaO) in cement production (CaCO₃ -> CaO + CO₂), and the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal ( C + O₂ -> CO₂) , oil (CH₃(CH₂)nH + ((3n +4)/2)O₂ -> (n+1)CO₂ + (n+2)H₂O) and natural gas, mainly methane (CH₄ + 2O₂ -> CO₂ + 2 H₂O).

Major CO₂ sinks include photosynthetic bacterial photosynthesis and plant photosynthesis yielding cellulose and related carbohydrates of wood and thence of soil carbonaceous compounds of humus. Photosynthesis yields carbohydrate: nCO₂ + nH₂0 + solar energy -> (CH₂O)_n + nO₂. Most of photosynthesis is reversed by carbohydrate oxidation by fires or aerobic organisms: (CH₂O)_n + O₂ -> nCO₂ + nH₂O. Some CO₂ dissolves in ocean water, this resulting in biologically deleterious acidification: CO₂ + H₂O -> H₂CO₃ -> HCO₃^- + H⁺; HCO₃^- -> CO₃^2- + H⁺ (see later: threat to coral from ocean acidification as well as warming).

Coal derives from anaerobic geologic conversion of cellulosic carbohydrates to carbon ((CH₂O)_n + heat, pressure -> nC + n H₂O). Subterranean oil drives from anaerobic decarboxylation of biologically-derived fatty acids (CH₃(CH₂)_n-COOH + heat, pressure -> CH₃(CH₂)_nH + CO₂. Subterranean methane derives from anaerobic reduction of carbohydrates by anaerobic bacteria (reduction being addition of electrons (e-), addition of hydrogen atoms (H) or removal of oxygen (O)): (CH₂O)_n + 4H (derived from catabolism and reduced coenzymes) -> nCH₄ + nH₂O.

7. Methane derives from anaerobic degradation of biological material e.g. in swamps, waste dumps, livestock digestion: (CH₂O)_n + 4H (derived from reduced coenzymes) -> nCH₄ + nH₂O. Global warming is already releasing CH₄ from H₂O-CH₄ clathrates in tundra and in shallow parts of the Arctic Ocean. Fugitive CH₄ emissions occur from coal mines, coal seam gas (CSG) extraction, conventional natural gas extraction, from coal seam and shale fracking and from systemic gas reticulation leakage.

8. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) derives from agricultural use of nitrogenous fertilizers and from fossil fuel (coal, gas and oil) combustion.

9. CO₂ concentration. As determined from ice cores the atmospheric CO₂ concentration has been 180-300 parts per million (ppm) for the last 800,000 years (excluding the last century), during which time Homo sapiens finally evolved (glaciation at low CO₂ and inter-glacial at high CO₂). Indeed these circa 100,000 year cycle oscillations (determined by the earth’s orientation towards the sun and the ellipticity of its orbit) crucially contributed to the final evolution of man (repeated severe selection pressures). Atmospheric CO₂ , now 394 ppm and increasing at over 2.4 ppm per year (seasonally oscillating, Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii), is reported as a dry air mole fraction defined as the number of molecules of CO₂ divided by the number of all molecules in air, including CO₂ itself, after water vapor has been removed. Man-made from burning fossil fuels (decreasing ¹⁴C; fossil CO₂ lacks ¹⁴C) and deforestation (initially non-tropical, now mostly tropical).

10. CH₄ concentration now 1774 parts per billion (ppb) versus 700 ppb in 1750 (i.e. pre-industrial). N₂O concentration is 319 ppb now as compared to 270 ppb in 1750.

11. Temperature change correlates with GHG change. Modelled temperature change from GHG forcings fits observed pattern in nearly all zones (IPCC; key evidence for Anthropogenic Global warming, AGW).

12. Forcing of man-made GHG and absorbing particles 30x that of change in solar input effect. 1750-2005 heating change in watts/m²: air CO₂ (+1.7), CH₄, N₂O, CFCs (+1.0), net O₃ (troposphere up, stratosphere down; +0.3), soot (+0.3), reflective particles e.g. sulphate aerosols (-0.7), indirect, cloud-forming particle effects (-0.7), human land-use increasing reflectivity (-0.2), solar input change (+ 0.1).

13. Photosynthesis and re-oxidation carbon cycle. Terrestrial carbon fixation of 121.3 GtC/y (x 44/12 = 3.7 -> 449 Gt CO₂ = 449 billion tonnes of CO₂) of which about half returns annually to the atmosphere through plant and animal respiration and most of the remaining half returns to the air through the action of soil fungi and bacteria. Net terrestrial biome production 0.7 GtC/year. Ocean photosynthesis (prokaryotic cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae) 45 GtC /year.

14. Biochar from anaerobic pyrolysis (400-700C) conversion of cellulosic material to carbon (C, charcoal, biochar, Amazonian Indian terra preta): (CH₂O)_n + heat -> nC + nH₂O. Current potential: 1.7 GtC/yr (straw from agriculture) + 4.2 GtC/yr (total grass upgrowth from grasslands upgrowth) + 6 GtC/yr (possible sustainable woodharvest) = 11.9 GtC/yr. Professor Johannes Lehmann (Cornell University): could fix 9.5bn tonnes of carbon per year using biochar, noting global annual production of carbon from fossil fuels is 8.5bn tonnes (see later: biochar is a major means of returning atmospheric CO₂ to 300 ppm from current dangerous and damaging 394 ppm; geoengineering abatement).

15. Carbon storage. 750 GtC in atmosphere (mostly CO2; half due to historical fossil fuel combustion); 700 GtC in biomass (mostly wood); 1,600 GtC in soil; 36,000 GtC in ocean as bicarbonate ion (HCO₃^-); no net CO₂ from vulcanism and weathering (time scale < 100,000 years).

16. World Bank analysts have recently re-assessed annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution as 50% bigger than hitherto thought and that the livestock contribution is over 51% of the bigger figure (major element: 20 year time frame considered for CH₄ GWP).

B. Already observed climatic disruption consequences of global warming.

1. Climate is the pattern of weather. Average surface temperature + 0.8C; +2C inevitable on current trends; may reach +4C by 2100.

2. Non-uniform temperature increase e.g. +2C (Indian Ocean), +4C (Arctic), average +0.8C; thermal inertia, >90% extra heat in oceans.

3. Uneven heating changes wind patterns e.g. East Asia monsoon weakening.

4. Glaciers are shrinking word-wide. No net deposition of ice in Himalayas (no deposition of atmospheric radioactivity) – feeds rivers from Pakistan to China.

5. Permafrost thawing (Fairbanks, Alaska: average circa 0C, +2C over last 50 years). Permafrost melts at T> 0C (noting CH₄ release and positive feedback).

6. Arctic summer sea ice disappearing (80% decrease of total mass; NIDC data: half surface area gone already, the rest to go by about 2030, NW Passage open in summer).

7. Surface melting in Greenland expanding (+ 7 metres sea level if all goes).

8. China: increased floods (south), increased drought (north); same pattern in Australia of increased floods (closer to equator), increased drought (south).

9. A 4-10-fold increase in major flood events per decade around the world (1950-2000) (increased sea temperature means increased humidity, increased precipitation). Statistically proven AGW cause for recent Welsh floods but hard to prove in general because of weather variability (cf cannot prove an individual smoker’s lung cancer due to smoking).

10. Consensus prediction of an increased number of the more intense storms as AGW increases (arguable doubling of tropical hurricane intensity 1950-2000; tropical cyclone power increase parallels increased sea temperature).

11. Melting land ice and thermal expansion increasing sea level (3.0 mm/yr, 1993-2003; 1.5 mm/yr, 1910-1990; circa 20 cm). Major problem for India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, other tropical megadelta regions (storm surges).

12. Ocean acidification due to CO₂ dissolution and ionization (0.1pH; see below: coral threat).

13. Loss of major CO₂ uptake by Southern Ocean (increased storm intensity impact).

14. Over 90% of extra heat in oceans.

C. Already observed biological impacts related to AGW.

1. Ecosystem migration towards poles with AGW (e.g. ocean phytoplankton, deciduous trees in Canada).

2. Heat waves 2x more frequent in Europe (2003 heat wave killed 35,000-50,000 people). January 2009 heat wave prior to 7 February 2009 Victoria Black Saturday killed 500 in SE Australia (elderly more frail, decreased stress signaling).

3. Drought and heat causing increased forest fires (4-10-fold increase in forest area burned in W USA, 1970-2000). Amazon forests threatened by drought and burning positive feedback cycle. Threat to Australia.

4. Mountain pine beetle (MPB) Dendroctonus ponderosae blight (warmer winters, increased survival; larval feeding; fungus infection prevents tree resin defence; devastation of North American conifer forests, US, Canada).

5. Disease migration towards poles (e.g. dengue fever and malaria spread through mosquito vector migration).

6. Increased drought impact in Southern US, Central America, Brazil, Europe, Russia, Mediterranean, Sub-Saharan Africa, East Africa, Siberia, Central Asia, Northern China, Southern Australia, SE Asia (+1C -> 10% decrease in sub-tropical grain yield).

7. Increased temperature, droughts, floods and coastal loss coupled with increased population (9.5 billion by 2050) means greater impact on ecosystems.

8. Coral loss started at 320 ppm CO₂ (general death above 450 ppm; ecosystem disaster).

9. Sex ratio changes in reptilian species due to increased average temperature.

10 Species extinction rate is now 100-1,000 times greater than previously, impacted by AGW and increasing human population and land use.

D. Projected biological impacts.

1. Increasing temperature, drought, floods, sea level rise (possibly 2 metre by 2100), increased high intensity storms and storm surges (see (C) above) resulting in further loss of arable land, ecosystems, pressure on remaining ecosystems.

2. Coral loss due to ocean warming (expulsion of Zooxanthellae photosynthetic algae symbionts and coral bleaching) and ocean acidification from CO₂ dissolution impacts on calcareous exoskeleton formation. Major coral death above 450 ppm CO₂.

3. Ocean acidification impacting all ocean organisms with calcareous exoskeletons (e.g. lobster, crab and shrimp crustaceans).

4. Above 500 ppm CO₂ major loss of phytoplankton (bottom of the ocean food chain) and dimethyl sulphide (DMS) production (involved in cloud seeding); complete loss of Greenland ice sheet (long-term loss yielding 7 m sea level rise); loss of terrestrial plants as CO₂ sinks (i.e. net CO₂ emission).

5. Complete loss of Arctic summer sea ice in circa 2030 (loss of ecosystems, increased risk of oil pollution in Arctic.from increased shipping).

6. Successive loss of Antarctic sea ice, phytoplankton, krill and thence krill-eating animals e.g. fish, penguins, seals, whales.

7. Water stress in particular regions with agricultural, ecosystem, peace impacts.

8. Climate genocide. Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre, UK) have recently estimated that only about 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming. Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including roughly 2 times the present populations of various non-European groups, specifically 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. Biofuel genocide (food for fuel, price increase, volatility).

E. Urgency of required action.

1. Just as we turn to top medical specialists for advice on life-threatening disease, so we turn to the opinions of top scientists and in particular top biological and climate scientists for Climate Change risk assessment. Thus some opinions: (a) Professor James Hansen (top US climate scientist, head, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies): “We face a climate emergency”; (b) Nobel Laureate Professor Peter Doherty: “We are in real danger”; (c) Professor David de Kretser AC (eminent medical scientist and former Governor of Victoria, Australia): “There is no doubt in my mind that this is the greatest problem confronting mankind at this time and that it has reached the level of a state of emergency”; (d) Dr Andrew Glikson (palaeo-climate scientist, ANU): “The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has … raised CO₂ levels to 387 ppm CO₂ to date, leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO₂ levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres”; (e) Synthesis Report of the March 2009 Copenhagen Scientific Climate Change Conference: “Inaction is inexcusable”; and (f) 2010 Open Letter by 255 members of the US National Academy of Sciences: “Delay is not an option”.

2. Climate emergency actions urgently required: (a) Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying; (b) Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO₂ to a safe level of about 300 ppm (as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists to address the current mass species extinction event and to permit return and sustainability of Arctic sea ice); (c) Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that have currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power and a 4 times cheaper “true price” taking environmental and human impacts into account) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth.

3. Budget approach to last remaining permissible GHG pollution.

(a). Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany): for a 67% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise the World must cease CO₂ emissions by 2050 and top per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) polluters such as the US and Australia must get to zero CO₂ emissions by 2020.

(b) Australian Climate Commission's 2011 "The Critical Decade" report: for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise the World can emit no more than 1 trillion tonnes of CO₂ before reaching zero emissions in about 2050. Australia's high Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution rate means it must get to zero emissions in 1.9 years (or in 4.6 years ignoring Exported GHG pollution).

(c) WBGU (that advises German Government on climate change), “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach” (2009): for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade (2C) temperature rise the World can emit no more than 0.6 trillion tonnes of CO₂ before reaching zero emissions in about 2050. Australia's high Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution rate means that by August 2011 it had already used up its “fair share”.

F. Further key points..

1. Gas is not clean, it is dirty, 1 tonne of methane (CH₄) generating 2.8 tonnes CO₂ on combustion. Gas burning is cleaner than coal burning in terms of twice the MWh/tonne CO₂ emitted and less health damaging pollutants but gas is not cleaner than coal burning GHG-wise. Thus methane (CH₄) leaks (3.3% in the US; 7.9% from fracking shale deposits) and is 105 times worse than CO₂ as a GHG on a 20 year time frame taking aerosol impacts into account, this meaning that a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition could double electric power industry-derived GHG pollution (if shale gas used).

2. Climate change is damaging and destroying ecosystems (ecocide) and the species extinction rate is now 100-1,000 times greater than normal (Australia is a word leader). We must not destroy what we cannot replace.

3. Leading scientists, economists and analysts slam the Carbon Trading Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) approach as empirically ineffective, dangerously counterproductive and inherently fraudulent because it involves governments selling licences to pollute the one common atmosphere of all countries.

4. 2.6 % leakage of CH₄ yields the same greenhouse effect as burning the remaining 97.4% (noting that 1g CH₄ has 105 times the GWP of 1 g CO₂) – ergo, stop gas exploitation, aquifer-poisoning and aquifer-depleting fracking of shale and coal seams.

5. Many countries (e.g. EU countries and Australia) support a 450 ppm CO₂ -e and 2C temperature rise "cap". However the Synthesis Report of the 2,500-delegate March 2009 scientific Copenhagen Climate Conference indicates that we have already exceeded 450 ppm CO₂-e and over 90% of delegates polled thought 2C was inevitable.

6. Atmospheric CO2 must be urgently returned to about 300 ppm for a safe Planet.for all peoples and all species. Circa 320 ppm CO₂ is required for restoration of the Arctic sea ice and for coral sustainability. However atmospheric CO₂ concentration is currently 394 ppm and is increasing at about 2.4 ppm per year. Less not more!

7. Stop shale oil exploitation (e.g. Canada-US keystone oil pipeline) means “game over” for Planet. Dr James Hansen (NASA): “The tar sands are estimated (e.g., see IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) to contain at least 400 GtC (equivalent to about 200 ppm CO₂). Easily available reserves of conventional oil and gas are enough to take atmospheric CO₂ well above 400 ppm, which is unsafe for life on earth. However, if emissions from coal are phased out over the next few decades and if unconventional fossil fuels including tar sands are left in the ground, it is conceivable to stabilize earth's climate. Phasing out emissions from coal is itself an enormous challenge. However, if the tar sands are thrown into the mix, it is essentially game over.”

8. “Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO₂-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO₂ pollution is included).

G. Australia

1. Carbon burning pollutants have been estimated from Canadian and New Zealand data to kill about 10,000 Australians yearly. Australians dying each year from the effects of pollutants from vehicles, coal burning for electricity and other carbon burning total about 2,200, 4,600 and 2,800, respectively.

2. Australia has about 0.3% of the World’s population but its Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution is about 3% of the World total (climate exceptionalism, climate racism, and climate injustice in addition to horrific intergenerational inequity).

3. Australia already has a huge negative carbon tax of $12 billion annually to subsidize carbon burning.

4. It is estimated that an Australian carbon tax of circa $25/tonne carbon will encourage gas-fired power, $70/tonne carbon will encourage wind and about $200/tonne carbon will encourage concentrated solar thermal installation (indeed Australian Government hopes for a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition).

5. True carbon price. A risk avoidance-based estimate of $7.6 million for the value of a statistical life and Australia’s annual Domestic GHG pollution (2009) of 600 million tonnes CO2-e (162 million tonnes Carbon) yields a Carbon Price of $7.6 million x 10,000 annual deaths/ 162 million tonnes Carbon = $469/tonne carbon.

6. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) has projected that Australia's black coal exports will increase at an average rate of 2.6% per year over the next 20 years and that liquid natural gas (LNG) exports will increase at 9% per year over the same period. Further, it is estimated that Australian exports of dried brown coal will reach 20 million tonnes by 2020, this corresponding to about 59 million tonnes CO₂-e after combustion.

7. The Carbon Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) policy of the Australian Government fails comprehensively in 3 key areas, specifically (1) it entrenches climate change inaction for decades by promoting a Carbon Tax-driven coal to gas transition (that will double electricity generation-derived GHG pollution if shale gas used) and scuppering science-demanded 100% renewable energy by 2020; (2) it adopts an empirically ineffective, disastrously counterproductive and inherently fraudulent ETS approach and (3) ignores major GHG sources of petrol, diesel, biofuel, fossil fuel exports (apart from fugitive emissions, extraction and transport costs), soil, forestry and agriculture (agriculture is responsible for over 50% of GHG pollution).

8.. Success in “tackling climate change” is surely measured in terms of GHG pollution reduction but Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution increased from 1,018 Mt CO₂-e (CO₂ equivalent) in 2000 to 1,415 million tonnes CO₂-e in 2009 and is expected to reach about 1,799 Mt CO₂-e by 2020 and 4,490b Mt CO₂-e in 2050. However Treasury ABARE and US EIA data show the following Australian Domestic and Exported GHG pollution (in millions of tonnes of CO₂-equivalent, Mt CO₂-e) for Australia under the proposed Carbon Price plan:

2000: 496 (Domestic) + 505 (coal exports) + 17 (LNG exports) = 1,018.

2009: 600 (Domestic) + 784 (coal exports) + 31 (LNG exports) = 1,415.

2020: 621 (Domestic) + 1,039 (black coal exports) + 80 (LNG exports) + 59 (brown coal exports) = 1,799.

2050: 527 (Domestic) + 2902 (coal exports) + 1,061 (LNG exports) = 4,490.

H. 100% renewable energy, cessation of GHG pollution, re-afforestation and biochar.

1. The Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) plan for 100% renewable stationary energy for Australia by 2020 (Zero Carbon Australia by 2020, ZCA 2020) involves 40% wind energy, 60% concentrated solar thermal (CST) with molten salts energy storage for 24/7 baseload power, biomass and hydroelectric backup (for days of no wind and low sunshine) and a HV DC and HC AC national power grid. The BZE scheme was costed at $370 billion over 10 years, with roughly half spent on CST, one quarter on wind and one quarter on the national electricity grid.

2. Seligman scheme. A scheme for 100% renewable energy for Australia has been set out by top electrical engineer Professor Peter Seligman (a major player in development of the bionic ear). Professor Seligman’s scheme involves wind, solar thermal, other energy sources, hydrological energy storage (in dams on the Nullabor Plain in Southern Australia), an HV AC and HV DC electricity transmission grid and a cost over 20 years of $253 billion.

3. Wind power. Ignoring cost-increasing energy storage and transmission grid costs and cost-decreasing economies of scale for a 2- to10-fold size increase, here are 2 similar cost estimates for installation of wind power for 80% of Australia’s projected 325,000 GWh of annual electrical energy by 2020: (1) 90,000 MW capacity, 260,000 GWh/year, $200 billion/10 years (10-fold scale-up from GL Garrad Hassan) and (2) 96,000 MW, 260,000 GWh/year, $144 billion (2-fold scale up from BZE ).

4. Science-demanded reduction of atmospheric CO₂ from 394 ppm to 300 ppm requires “negative GHG emissions” achieved by cessation of GHG pollution ASAP and CO₂ reduction though re-afforestation, renewable energy driven CO₂ trapping in alkaline solutions, and biochar (as much as 12 billion tonnes carbon as biochar can be fixed annually globally from renewable energy-driven anaerobic pyrolysis of agricultural and forestry cellulosic waste).

5. Re-afforestation (SE Australian native forests are World’s best forest carbon sinks; 14 M ha, 25.5 Gt CO₂, 460 Mt CO₂/yr avoided for next 100 years if retained). Nicholas Stern: only $20 billion pa to halve annual global deforestation.

6. Livestock production inefficient, requires compensating carbon sinks – we are all in this together.

I. Some useful references.

This course synopsis is on the websites for the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group (see: http://yvcag.blogspot.com/2011_08_01_archive.html and https://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/2011-climate-change-course ) and 300.org (see: http://300org.blogspot.com/2011_08_01_archive.html and https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course ) together with numerous detailed Web-accessible references (these sites also contain many other carefully researched and documented articles).

James Hansen, “Letter to PM Kevin Rudd”: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080401_DearPrimeMinisterRudd.pdf .

John Holdren, “The science of climatic disruption”: http://www.usclimateaction.org/userfiles/JohnHoldren.pdf .

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, “Terra quasi-incognita: beyond the 2 degree C line”: http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/ppt/1-1schellnhuber.pdf .

References.

1. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, “Terra quasi-incognita: beyond the 2 degree C line”< 4 Degrees & Beyond, International Climate Conference, 26-30 September 2009, Oxford University, UK : http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/ppt/1-1schellnhuber.pdf .

2. Beyond Zero Emissions Zero (BZE), Zero Carbon Australia by 2020 Report (BZE ZCA2020 Report), 2010: http://www.beyondzeroemissions.org/about/bze-brand .

3. Australian Climate Commission, “The Critical Decade. Climate science, risks and responses”, 2011: http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-critical-decade/ .

4. Gideon Polya, “Country By Country Analysis Of Years Left Until Science-demanded Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, Countercurrents, 11 June 2011: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya110611.htm .

5. Gideon Polya, “Australia's Carbon Tax And Coal To Gas Transition Will Double Power Generation Greenhouse Gas Pollution”, Countercurrents, 15 May 2011: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya150511.htm .

6. Gideon Polya, “Carbon Price & Climate Change Action Fact Sheet for leading per capita greenhouse gas polluter Australia”, Bellaciao, 14 March 2011: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article20628 .

7. Phillip Levin, Donald Levin, “The real biodiversity crisis”, American Scientist, January-February 2002: http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/the-real-biodiversity-crisis .

8. “Australia’s threatened species”, Nova: http://www.science.org.au/nova/010/010key.htm .

9. “Experts: carbon tax needed and not cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme (ETS”, 300.org): http://300org.blogspot.com/2011/05/experts-carbon-tax-not-ets.html .

10. Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?”, World Watch, November/December 2009: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf .

11. Synthesis Report from the March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, Climate Change, Global risks, challenges & decisions”, Copenhagen 10-12 March, 2009, University of Copenhagen, Denmark: http://lyceum.anu.edu.au/wp-content/blogs/3/uploads//Synthesis%20Report%20Web.pdf .

12. “300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”, 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm .

13. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, “Recent monthly mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa”: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ .

14. “Australian carbon burning-related deaths”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/2011-carbon-burning .

15. “Climate Genocide”: http://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .

16. Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF), “Australia spends $11 billion more encouraging pollution than cleaning it up”, 1 March 2011: http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=3308&eid=11731 .

17. Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE), “Carbon pricing – will it benefit renewable energy”, February 2011: http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/15154881/738777308/name/BZE%20Carbon%20Price%20Recommendations%2020110228.pdf .

18. Gideon Polya, “Australia's Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution has increased under Labor”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/australia-s-ghg-pollution .

19. ABARE, “Australian energy national and state projections to 2029-2030”: http://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/energy/energy_06/nrg_projections06.pdf .

20. Peter Seligman, “Australian sustainable energy – by the numbers”, Melbourne Energy Institute, University of Melbourne , 2010: http://energy.unimelb.edu.au/ozsebtn/.

21. GL Garrad Hassan https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/mediaObject/events/2010-conference/presentations/1600-Barber---White/original/CEC%202010%20conference%20-%20GLGH.pdf .

22. Gideon Polya, “Forest biomass-derived Biochar can profitably reduce global warming and bushfire risk”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/forest-biomass-derived-biochar-can-profitably-reduce-global-warming-and-bushfire-risk .

23. “Climate crisis facts and required actions”, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-crisis-facts-required-actions .

24. Gideon Polya, “Oz Labor’s Carbon Tax-ETS & gas for coal plan means INCREASED GHG pollution”, Bellaciao, 27 August 2011: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article21140 .

25. Gideon Polya, “Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissions”, Green Blog, 1 August 2011: http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/01/shocking-analysis-by-country-of-years-left-to-zero-emissions/ .

26. Drew T. Shindell , Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch , Gavin A. Schmidt , Nadine Unger and Susanne E. Bauer , “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions”, Science, 30 October 2009:
Vol. 326 no. 5953 pp. 716-718: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716 .

27 Shindell et al (2009), Fig.2: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716.figures-only .

28. Robert W. Howarth, Renee Santoro and Anthony Ingraffea, “Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations”, Climatic Change, 2011: http://www.sustainablefuture.cornell.edu/news/attachments/Howarth-EtAl-2011.pdf .

29. Australian Treasury, “Strong growth, low pollution. Modelling a carbon price”, 2011: http://cache.treasury.gov.au/treasury/carbonpricemodelling/content/report/downloads/Modelling_Report_Consolidated.pdf?v=1 .

30. John Holdren, “The Science of climatic disruption”: http://www.usclimateaction.org/userfiles/JohnHoldren.pdf .

31. James Hansen, “Letter to PM Kevin Rudd”: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080401_DearPrimeMinisterRudd.pdf .

32. Brendan Mackey, Heather Keith, Sandra Berry, David Lindenmeyer (ANU), “Green Carbon. The role of natural forests in carbon storage”: http://epress.anu.edu.au/green_carbon/pdf/whole_book.pdf .

Dr Gideon Polya currently teaches science students at a major Australian university. He published some 130 works in a 5 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds" (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London , 2003). He has recently published “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/ ); see also his contributions “Australian complicity in Iraq mass mortality” in “Lies, Deep Fries & Statistics” (edited by Robyn Williams, ABC Books, Sydney, 2007): http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/ockham/stories/s1445960.htm ) and “Ongoing Palestinian Genocide” in “The Plight of the Palestinians (edited by William Cook, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2010: http://mwcnews.net/focus/analysis/4047-the-plight-of-the-palestinians.html ). He has just published a revised and updated 2008 version of his 1998 book “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History” (see: http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/ ) as biofuel-, globalization- and climate-driven global food price increases threaten a greater famine catastrophe than the man-made famine in British-ruled India that killed 6-7 million Indians in the “forgotten” World War 2 Bengal Famine (see recent BBC broadcast involving Dr Polya, Economics Nobel Laureate Professor Amartya Sen and others: http://www.open2.net/thingsweforgot/ bengalfamine_programme.html ). When words fail one can say it in pictures - for images of Gideon Polya's huge paintings for the Planet, Peace, Mother and Child see: http://sites.google.com/site/artforpeaceplanetmotherchild/ and http://www.flickr.com/photos/gideonpolya/ .

Climate Holocaust & Climate Genocide

Climate Holocaust and Climate Genocide.

The Climate Holocaust and Climate Genocide website (see: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ ) documents authoritative opinions of leading climate scientists, climate economists, climate analysts and world figures who predict a massive death toll from unaddressed, man-made global warming.

Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that fewer than 1 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming – noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. [1].

Already 16 million people (about 9.5 million of them under-5 year old infants) die avoidably every year due to deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease – and man-made global warming is already clearly worsening this global avoidable mortality holocaust. However 10 billion avoidable deaths due to global warming this century yields an average annual avoidable death rate of 100 million per year. [2].

Collective, national responsibility for this already commenced Climate Holocaust is in direct proportion to per capita national pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases (GHGs). Indeed, fundamental to any international agreement on national rights to pollute our common atmosphere and oceans should be the belief that “all men are created equal”. However reality is otherwise: “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO₂-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO₂ pollution is included). [3, 4].

However there is also a past carbon pollution debt for carbon pollution from the start of the Industrial Revolution 2 centuries ago. European First World countries are responsible for about 73% of historical carbon pollution of the atmosphere from 1751-2006,with India, Japan and China contributing 2.5%, 3.9% and 8.2%, respectively. [5].

A further measure of responsibility into the future comes from proposals to limit GHG pollution put to the recent Copenhagen Climate Conference (COP15) that was successfully sabotaged by 2 of the World’s worst per capita GHG polluters, Australia and the US, acting in collaboration with other major polluters.

The fairest plan at the Copenhagen Climate Conference (COP15) has been the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) proposal for "55% of 1990 levels by 2020 for Developed Countries" which means that Developed Countries’ per capita would go from 16 to 6.5 tonnes CO2-e per person per year while Developing Countries would "in aggregate aim to achieve significant deviations from baselines by 2020” i.e. less than a predicted 3.8 for the Developing World by 2020. [6].

The UN Draft Proposal is for a less just Developed 2020 per capita of 7.1- 8.9 from the present 16 but the US has proposed a 2020 per capita for itself of 12.4 from its current 27. [6].

The most unjust plan at Copenhagen comes from world's worst per capita GHG polluter, Australia, which has made a highly conditional best offer of "75% of 2000 value by 2020" which would mean that Australia's domestic per capita would go from 30 to 17.2 in 2020 and its domestic plus exported per capita would INCREASE 15% from 54 to 62 tonnes CO2-e per person per year in 2020. [4, 6, 7].

Holocaust simply means death of a huge number of people as exampled by the WW2 Jewish Holocaust (5-6 million people killed, 1 in 6 dying from deprivation), the WW2 Holocaust in general (30 million Slavs, Jews and Gypsies killed), the WW2 Bengali Holocaust (6-7 million Indians deliberately starved to death by the British) and the 35 million Chinese killed associated with the Japanese occupation of China in the1930s and 1940s. [2].

However the definition of “genocide” by Article 2 of the UN Genocide Convention involves Assessment of “intent’ by those responsible: states “In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, as such: a) Killing members of the group; b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.” [8].

“Intent” to commit mass murder is only rarely explicitly expressed. Thus British writer, patriot and genocidal racist Charles Dickens expressed a desire to exterminate the Indian people after the so-called Indian Mutiny of 1857:: “I wish I were Commander in Chief over there [India]! I would address that Oriental character which must be powerfully spoken to, in something like the following placard, which should be vigorously translated into all native dialects, “I, The Inimitable, holding this office of mine, and firmly believing that I hold it by the permission of Heaven and not by the appointment of Satan, have the honor to inform you Hindoo gentry that it is my intention, with all possible avoidance of unnecessary cruelty and with all merciful swiftness of execution, to exterminate the Race from the face of the earth, which disfigured the earth with the late abominable atrocities [2,000 British killed in the 1857 Indian War of Independence aka the 1857 Indian Mutiny]”. [9].

In the event, the British killed an estimated 10 million Indians as reprisals for the so-called Indian Mutiny. [10, 11].

“Intent” in genocide can also be established by sustained, remorseless complicity in mass avoidable death – as exampled by Nazi German responsibility for the WW2 Genocide of Slavs, Jews and Gypsies (1939-1945) , Japanese responsibility for the Chinese Genocide of the 1930s and 1940s and British responsibility for the WW2 Bengali Genocide, 1943-1945. [12].

Sustained, remorseless “intent” to kill literally billions of non-Europeans through global warming is apparent in the sustained, remorseless pollution of the a atmosphere by the First World and by First World refusal at the disastrous 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference to emplace legally-binding effective carbon pollution measures in the face of dire warnings from the world scientific community. [13].

Just as violent mass murder, mass paeodocide and genocide invite genocide trials before the International Criminal Court, so does remorseless commitment by the First World to climate holocaust and climate genocide. Indeed a formal complaint has been made to the International Criminal Court over Australian complicity in the ongoing Aboriginal Genocide (9,000 avoidable deaths annually out of an Indigenous Australian population of 0.5 million), Iraqi Genocide (4.4 million violent and non-violent excess deaths, 1990-2009), Afghan Genocide (4.5 million violent and non-violent excess deaths, 2001-2009) and Climate Genocide (10 billion predicted to die this century). [14].

The Climate Holocaust, Climate Genocide website represents a valuable resource for decent, civilized humanity – it documents expert, authoritative opinions of leading climate scientists, climate economists, climate analysts and world figures who predict a massive, knowingly and deliberately caused death toll from unaddressed, man-made global warming this century.

[1]. “Climate racism, climate injustice & climate genocide – Australia, US and EU sabotage Copenhagen COP15”: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article19422 .

[2]. Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007; see: http://mwcnews.net/Gideon-Polya and http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/ ).

[3]. “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita .

[4]. “Climate justice & climate injustice: Australia wants a 2020 per capita GHG pollution 15 times greater than Developing World’s”: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-justice .

[5]. Letter to PM Rudd by Dr James Hansen (Head, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies): http://www.aussmc.org.au/documents/Hansen2008LetterToKevinRudd_000.pdf .

[6]. “Copenhagen Greenhouse Gas reduction proposals - quantitative comparisons”: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/copenhagen-greenhouse-gas-reduction-proposals---quantitative-comparisons .

[7]. “Climate racism, climate injustice & climate genocide – Australia, US and EU sabotage Copenhagen COP15”: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article19422 .

[8]. UN Genocide Convention: http://www.edwebproject.org
/sideshow/genocide/convention.html .

[9]. Grace Moore (2004), Dicken and the Empire. Discourses of class, race, and colonialism in the works of Charles Dickens” (Ashgate Publishing, Aldershot, UK): http://www.amazon.com/Dickens-Empire-Discourses-Colonialism-Nineteenth/dp/glanceands=books/0754634124 and http://books.google.com.au/books?id=ZUxw0x84cGwC&pg=PA94&lpg=PA94&dq=exterminate+dickens+%22
commander%22&source=bl&ots=HYRvwOuGJK&sig=gTCZ7lGSDKf20lcjsseDgicVm7k&hl=en&ei=xjkXStmlK6j8tgOC97HbCA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5#PPA94,M1 .

[10]. Gideon Polya, “UK BBC holocaust denial”, Countercurrents, : http://www.countercurrents.org/polya240509.htm .

[11]. Amaresh Misra, “War of Civilizations: India AD 1857”, Volume I, “The Road to Delhi” & Volume II, “The Long Revolution” (2008) RUPA, India).

[12]. Dr Gideon Polya, Professor Amartya Sen, Dr Sanjoy Bhattacharya et al., BBC (2008), The things we forgot to remember. The Bengal Famine:: http://www.open2.net/thingsweforgot/bengalfamine_programme.html ).

[13]. “Copenhagen: “Imperial” climate deal rejected by poor-country delegates”, LINKS, 19 December 2009: http://links.org.au/node/1418 .

[14]. Formal complaint to the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court re Australian Government involvement in Aboriginal Genocide, Iraqi Genocide, Afghan Genocide and Climate Genocide: http://climateemergency.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html .

Australia will increase per capita GHG

Post-Copenhagen Australia will INCREASE its per capita Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution

After the Copenhagen Climate Conference, Australia is back in its Business -As-Usual (BAU) comfort zone of being (a) the unchallenged leader of the World in annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution and (b) not prepared to decrease its world leading domestic and exported annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution.

The Prime Minister, Treasurer, and Minister for Climate Change and Water, in “A new target for reducing Australia’s carbon pollution”, May 2009, set out their conditions for limited GHG pollution cutbacks: “The Rudd Government has today committed to reduce Australia’s [domestic] carbon pollution by 25 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal to stabilise levels of CO₂ equivalent at 450 parts per million or lower… 5% [if no agreement] … 15% [if] global action on track to stabilisation between 510-540 ppm CO2-e; advanced economy reductions on aggregate, in the range of 15-25% below 1990 levels … 25% (up to 5 percentage points through Government [international carbon credits] purchases … This would involve … advanced economy reductions, in aggregate, of at least 25% below 1990 levels by 2020; major developing economy commitments that slow emissions growth and then reduce their absolute level of emissions over time, with a collective reduction of at least 20% below business-as-usual by 2020 and a nomination of a peaking year for individual major developing economies; global action which mobilizes greater financial resources, including from major developing economies, and results in fully functional global carbon markets”. [1].

However, according to Dr Andrew Glikson (Australian national University, ANU; the WA Glikson Crater is named in his honor), October 2009 : "The atmosphere has already transcended the CO2-equivalent (including the forcing of methane) level of 460 ppm". [2].

According to p19 of the authoritative March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Congress Synthesis Report, the CO2 range of 350-400 ppm corresponds to a CO2-equivalent of 445-490 and interpolation of the quasi-linear graphed data yields correspondence of the current CO2 of 390 ppm with 480 ppm CO2-e. [3].

Accordingly we see that the current CO2-e is already 10-30 ppm above the target limit of 450 ppm CO2-e set by the Australian Government as a precondition for action.

One would assume that the Rudd Labor Australian Government would scrap as untenable its commitment “to reduce Australia’s [domestic] carbon pollution by 25 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal to stabilise levels of CO₂ equivalent at 450 parts per million or lower” – this target having already been exceeded by 10-30 ppm CO2-e.

Indeed this position has already been clarified post-Copenhagen by Climate Change Minister Senator Penny Wong: “"The reality is that the Greens have taken a position, in relation to targets, that the Government was not able to negotiate on. They indicated they did not wish to have a negotiation unless the Government was prepared to put targets of 25 to 40 per cent [of 2000 level by 2020] on the table. That is not the Government's policy, that is not the Government's position.We don't believe that is a responsible way forward. We've made clear what our target range is, that is dependent on what the rest of the world is prepared to do, and as we work over the coming weeks with other nations who are supporting the Copenhagen Accord, we will be considering very carefully what other nations put forward. We have our target range [5-25% off 2000 level by 2020; 60% off 2000 level by 2050], we will consider what is put forward by the rest of the world under this agreement, and we will do no more and no less. We will apply the conditions that have been the subject of a lot of discussion with industry, with business, and also with the environment movement, to determine what is the appropriate target for Australia." [4].

Post-Copenhagen, the Liberal Party-National Party Coalition Opposition has committed itself to a 5% reduction on 2000 level by 2020. According to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott: ''I think that we should go for the 5 per cent [off 2000 level by 2020]and we should only go higher than that if there are clear, binding, enforceable, transparent commitments from other countries. And in the wake of Copenhagen we certainly can't be confident that we have got that.'' [5].

What do these Australian commitments mean in terms of (a) domestic GHG pollution and (b) domestic plus exported GHG pollution?

Data below on Australia’s annual GHG pollution has been summarized from key authoritative sources by the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group. [6, 7].

Australia’s “annual LNG and coal exports” (Mt CO2 produced; projection from US Energy Information Administration data): 349.4 (2000), 502.7 (2008), 647.9 (2020), 1318.2 (2050).

Australia’s “annual Domestic GHG pollution) (Mt CO₂-e produced): 535.3 (2000), 627.2 (2008), 401.5 (2020: 75% of 2000 value i.e. 25% off 2000 value), 508.5 (95% of 2000 value i.e. 5% off 200 value), 214.1 (2050; 40% of 2000 value, i.e. 60% off 2000 level).

Australia’s predicted population (Millions; UN Population Division): 19.1 (2000), 21.0 (2008), 23.4 (2020), 28.0 (2050).

Australia’s Domestic “annual per capita GHG pollution” (tonnes CO2-e per person per year): 28.0 (2000), 29.9 (2008), 17.2 (2020; 25% off 2000), 21.7 (2020, 5% off 2000), 7.6 (60% off 2000).

Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution (Mt CO2-e): 884.7 (2000), 1129.9 (2008), 1049.4 (2020: 75% of 2000 value i.e. 25% off 2000 value), 1156.4 (2020: 95% of 2000 value i.e. 5% off 2000 value), 1532.3 (2050; 40% of 2000 value, i.e. 60% off 2000 level).

Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution as % of 2000 CO2-e: 100.0% (2000), 127.7% (2008), 118.6% (2020 if Domestic pollution is 75% of 2000 value i.e. 25% off 2000 value) OR 130.7% (2020 if Domestic pollution is 95% of 2000 value i.e. 5% off 2000 value), 173.2% (2050; if Domestic pollution is 40% of 2000 value, i.e. 60% off 2000 level).

Australia’s annual per capita Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution (tonnes CO2-e per person per year): 46.3 (2000), 53.8 (2008), 44.8 (2020 if Domestic pollution is 75% of 2000 value i.e. 25% off 2000 value) OR 49.4 (if Domestic pollution is 95% of 2000 value i.e. 5% off 2000 value), 54.7 (2050 if Domestic pollution is 40% of 2000 value, i.e. 60% off 2000 level).

Data on the past and projected greenhouse gas emissions of Developed and Developing countries (Gt CO2-e = billions of tonnes of GHGs measured as CO2-equivalent).is set out below as conveniently summarized by the US Environmental Protection Agency. [8].

Developed country GHG emissions (Gt CO2-e): 15.0 (1990), 16.5 (1995), 18.0 (2000), 19 (2005), 20.0 (2010), 21.0 (2015), 22.0 (2020).

Developed country population (billions): 1.147 (1990), 1.175 (1995), 1.195 (2000), 1,217 (2005), 1.237 (2010), 1,255 (2015), 1.268 (2020).

Developed country “annual per capita GHG pollution” (tonnes CO2-e per person per year”: 13.1 (1990), 14.0 (1995), 15.1 (2000), 15.6 (2005), 16.2 (2010), 16.7 (2015), 17.4 (2020).

“Advanced economy reductions, in aggregate, of at least 25% below 1990 levels by 2020” as demanded by the Australian Government would mean Developed country 2020 emissions of 0.75 x 15.0 = 11.3 Gt CO2-e, this corresponding to an “annual per capita GHG emission” of 11.3 Gt CO2-e/ 1.268 billion people = 8.9 tonnes CO2-e per person per year (as compared to Australia’s proposed 2020 values for itself of 17.2 (Domestic ) and 44.8 (Domestic plus Exported) tonnes CO2-3 per person per year).

Developing country GHG emissions (Gt CO2-e): 10.0 (1990), 12.0 (1995), 14.5 (2000), 16.0 (2005), 18.5 (2010), 21.0 (2015), 24.0 (2020).

Developing country population (billions): 4.143 (1990), 4.538 (1995), 4.920 (2000), 5.296 (2005), 5.671 (2010), 6.071 (2015), 6.406 (2020).

Developing country “annual per capita GHG pollution” (tonnes CO2-e per person per year”: 2.41 (1990), 2.64 (1995), 2.95 (2000), 3.02 (2005), 3.26 (2010), 3.46 (2015), 3.75 (2020).

We are now in a position to compare Australia’s “annual per capita GHG pollution” in “tonnes CO2-e per person per year” with that for Business –As-Usual (BAU) scenarios for the Developed and Developing World according to the US EPA. [8].

The Australian commitment to "60% off 2020 level by 2050" means that Australia's Domestic plus Exported per capita GHG pollution in tonnes per person per year will actually INCREASE from 53.8 (2008) to 54.7 (2050).

The best offer from the Australian Government (25% off 2000 by 2020) means a “Domestic” and “Domestic plus Exported” per capita in 2020 of 17.2 and 44.8 tonnes CO2-e per person per year, respectively, as compared to a 2020 Developed BAU per capita of 17.4 and a 2020 Developing BAU of 3.8.

The worst offer from the Australian Government and Opposition (5% off by 2020) means a “Domestic” and “Domestic plus Exported” per capita in 2020 of 21.7 and 49.4 tonnes CO2-e per person per year, respectively, as compared to a 2020 Developed BAU per capita of 17.4 and a 2020 Developing BAU of 3.8.

The base-line, bipartisan offer from Australia (5% off 2000 level by 2020) means that Australia’s 2020 Domestic per capita GHG pollution will be 21.7/3.8 = 4.5 times the Developing World’s 2020 BAU per capita and Australia’s Domestic plus Exported per capita GHG pollution will be 44.8/3.8 = 11.8 times the Developing World’s 2020 BAU per capita.

Bangladesh has one of the lowest footprints of any country in the world (0.9 tones per person per year) but is acutely threatened\ by historical and current First World GHG pollution. [6, 7, 9].

The base-line, bipartisan offer from Australia (5% off 2000 level by 2020) means that Australia’s 2020 Domestic per capita GHG pollution will be 21.7/0.9 = 24.1 times Bangladesh’s current per capita and Australia’s 2020 Domestic plus Exported per capita GHG pollution will be 44.8/0.9 = 49.8 times Bangladesh’s current per capita.

These astonishing disparities utterly trample over any notion that “all men are created equal” and add a startling new perspective to the notorious saying of former racist Australian Labor figure Arthur Calwell that ”Two Wongs do not make a White”. [9].

[1]. Prime Minister, Treasurer, Minister for Climate Change and Water, “A new target for reducing Australia’s carbon pollution”, May 2009: http://www.environment.gov.au/minister/wong/2009/pubs/mr20090504c.pdf ).

[2]. Andrew Glikson, “Planetary boundaries”, 18 October 2009: http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2009/10/andrew-glikson-planetary-boundaries-co2.html .

[3]. March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Congress Synthesis Report, p19: http://climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport/ .

[4]. Alexandra Kirk, “Climate Change Minister Penny Wong has ruled out negotiating with the Greens, as the Federal Government faces an uphill battle to make its emissions trading scheme (ETS) a reality”, ABC Local, AM, 22 December 2009: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/22/2778173.htm?site=local .

[5]. Tom Arup, “Limit emissions cut to 5%: Abbott”, Sydney Morning Herald, 23 December 2009: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/limit-emissions-cut-to-5-abbott-20091222-lbq5.html .

[6]. “Australia’s “5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020” endangers Australia, Humanity and the Biosphere“, Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/australia-s-5-off-2000-ghg-pollution-by-2020-endangers-australia-humanity-and-biosphere .

[7]. “Climate Justice & Climate Injustice: Australia wants a 2020 per capita GHG pollution 15 times greater than Developing World's”: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-justice .

[8]. US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), “Global Greenhouse Gas Data”: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html .

[9]. Gideon Polya, “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History. Colonial rapacity, holocaust denial and the crisis in biological sustainability”, G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 1998 & 2008, p183.

Comparing 2009 Copenhagen GHG proposals

Copenhagen Greenhouse Gas reduction proposals - quantitative comparisons.

Informed by “all men are created equal and have an unalienable right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”, Climate Justice demands that “annual per capita GHG emissions” should at the very least be the same for “all men” - at the very least, because European countries have been responsible for about 73% of 1750-2006 historical carbon pollution of the atmosphere since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century (see Dr James Hansen’s 2008 Open Letter to PM Kevin Rudd of Australia: http://www.aussmc.org.au/documents/Hansen2008LetterToKevinRudd.pdf ).

Below is a quantitative analysis of “annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution by 2020” inherent in the major Greenhouse Gas reduction proposals put forward at the December 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference.

Data on the past and projected populations of Developed and Developing countries is available from the UN Population Division (see: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ ).

Data on the past and projected greenhouse gas emissions of Developed and Developing countries is conveniently summarized by the US Environmental Protection Agency (see “Global Greenhouse Gas Data”: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html ) and is set out below (Gt CO2-e = billions of tonnes of GHGs measured as CO2-equivalent).

Developed country GHG emissions (Gt CO2-e): 15.0 (1990), 16.5 (1995), 18.0 (2000), 19 (2005), 20.0 (2010), 21.0 (2015), 22.0 (2020).

Developed country population (billions): 1.147 (1990), 1.175 (1995), 1.195 (2000), 1,217 (2005), 1.237 (2010), 1,255 (2015), 1.268 (2020).

Developed country “annual per capita GHG pollution” (tonnes CO2-e per person per year): 13.1 (1990), 14.0 (1995), 15.1 (2000), 15.6 (2005), 16.2 (2010), 16.7 (2015), 17.4 (2020).

Developing country GHG emissions (Gt CO2-e): 10.0 (1990), 12.0 (1995), 14.5 (2000), 16.0 (2005), 18.5 (2010), 21.0 (2015), 24.0 (2020).

Developing country population (billions): 4.143 (1990), 4.538 (1995), 4.920 (2000), 5.296 (2005), 5.671 (2010), 6.071 (2015), 6.406 (2020).

Developing country “annual per capita GHG pollution” (tonnes CO2-e per person per year): 2.41 (1990), 2.64 (1995), 2.95 (2000), 3.02 (2005), 3.26 (2010), 3.46 (2015), 3.75 (2020).

For a detailed analysis of the above data see “Climate justice & climate injustice: Australia wants a 2020 per capita GHG pollution 15 times greater than Developing World’s”, put on the Web by the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group (see: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-justice ).

“Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO₂-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO₂ pollution is included) (for sources see (see Wikipedia, “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita ; Dr Gideon Polya, “Pro-coal Australian Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) devalues Australian lives, threatens Biosphere and ignores Science”, 2009: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/latest-pro-coal-australian-emissions-trading-scheme-ets-devalues-australian-lives-threatens-biosphere-and-ignores-science-and-climate-emergency ; Michael Szabo, “Cut CO₂ to India’s level, top scientist urges”, Reuters, 28 May 2008: http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL28290944 ; Ross Garnaut, The Garnaut Climate Change Review, Chapter 7: http://www.garnautreview.org.au/chp7.htm ; Hal Turton, “Greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized countries. Where does Australia stand?”, Australia Institute, 2004: https://www.tai.org.au/documents/dp_fulltext/DP66.pdf ).

What do the various Copenhagen proposals mean in terms of “annual per capita GHG emissions” in “tonnes CO2-e per person per year” by 2020?

And how do these proposed per capita values compare with a conveniently assumed 2020 Bangladesh value of 1 tonne CO2-e per person per year?

Some of the major propositions at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference are listed below in order of DECREASING acceptability.

1. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) proposal for “55% of 1990 levels by 2020 for Developed Countries” would mean that their per capita would go from 16 to 6.5 [6.5 times Bangladesh’s] while Developing Countries would “in aggregate aim to achieve significant deviations [downwards] from baselines [BAU?] by 2020 [less than 3.8 i.e. less than 3.8 times Bangladesh’s?] (see New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/12/11/11greenwire-un-draft-emissions-proposal-a-nonstarter-for-u-64160.html ).

2. The UN Draft Proposal for “60-75% of 1990 levels by 2020 for Developed Countries” would mean that their average per capita would go from 16 to 7.1 – 8.9 in 2020 [7.1-8.9 times Bangladesh’s] (see NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/12/11/11greenwire-un-draft-emissions-proposal-a-nonstarter-for-u-64160.html ).

3. India has recently committed that it will not exceed the average per capita for Developed Countries which means that its per capita will increase on current projections from 2.2 to at most 8.9 by 2020 [see item #2; 8.9 times Bangladesh’s] (see: http://www.carbonoffsetsdaily.com/india-carbonmarketnews/pm-indias-carbon-emissions-will-not-exceed-levels-of-developed-countries-27207.htm ).

4. Notwithstanding China’s rapid uptake of renewable energy and its commitment to reduce carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40 to 45 percent by 2020, China’s greenhouse gas pollution is predicted to double by 2020 relative to the 2005 value according to various Western experts (see: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091210/sc_afp/unclimatewarmingchina ). This means China’s per capita will increase from circa 6 to a per capita of 2 x 7,527 Mt CO2-e/1,431 million persons = 10.5 [10.5 times Bangladesh’s] (for GHG data see: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34659.pdf ).

5. Obama USA’s proposal for “83% of 1990 value by 2020” would mean that its per capita would go from 27 to 0.83 x 5,177 Mt CO2-e / 346 million persons = 12.4 in 2020 [12.4 times Bangladesh’s] (for 1990 GHG data see: https://www.tai.org.au/documents/dp_fulltext/DP66.pdf ).

6. Australia’s highly conditional best offer of “75% of 2000 value by 2020” would mean that Australia’s domestic per capita would go from 30 to 17.2 in 2020 [17.2 times that of Bangladesh] (and its domestic plus exported per capita would go from 54 to 62 tonnes CO2-e per person per year in 2020 [62 times that of Bangladesh]).

Clearly the AOSIS proposal is by far the best on offer at Copenhagen and the US and Australian proposals are so destructive and so far removed from reality as to invite sanctions, boycotts, green tariffs, reparations demands, international criminal court prosecutions and other legal and trade retaliation by an indignant World.

However the AOSIS proposal would only be an initial step because top scientists are in actuality demanding NEGATIVE greenhouse gas emissions. Thus top climate scientists are now advocating a return of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration from the current 390 parts per million to about 300 ppm for a safe ands sustainable planet for all peoples and all species (see 300.org: http://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ).

A return to circa 300 ppm CO2 will mean drawdown of CO2 from the atmosphere i.e. NEGATIVE CO2 emissions.

Australia's derisory 5% off 2000 GHG by 2020

Australia’s “5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020” endangers Australia, Humanity and Biosphere

Australia’s “5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020” endangers Australia, Humanity and the Biosphere.

According to data from “Coal Facts Australia 2008” of the Australian Coal Association (see: http://www.australiancoal.com.au/resources.ashx/Publications/7/Publication/6C91AB6A13D9D31F5D15F5A816354C7A/COAL_FACTS_AUSTRALIA_2008_Feb08-4.pdf ). Australia’s Domestic greenhouse gas emissions in 2008 totalled 559 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (Mt CO2-e) or about 1.24% of estimated global emissions (45 Gt CO2-e = 45,000 Mt CO₂-e).

Australia’s greenhouse gas production in CO₂-e in 2000 was 535.3 million tonnes (Mt) according to “Greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized countries. Where does Australia stand?” by Hal Turton (Discussion Paper 66, The Australia Institute, June 2004). Based on an annual growth rate of 2% this indicates a 2008 value of 627 Mt.

However Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter and is also a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) that is Exported and thence burned to produce CO₂ . Using a 2008 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimate of 627 Mt (derived from the 2000 value and assuming an annual growth rate of 2%) plus CO₂ emissions estimates from exported coal and LNG in 2008 of 474.3 Mt and 28.4 Mt, respectively (see US Energy Information Administration data: http://www.eia.doe.gov/ ), one can estimate that Australia’s 2008 Domestic and Exported greenhouse gas emissions totalled 1130 Mt CO₂-e or 2.5% of estimated global emissions and 1130 Mt/21 million people = 53.8 tonnes CO₂ per person per year as compared to the World value of 6.8 (2000).

Extrapolating from US Energy Information Administration data (see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/ ) on Australian coal and liquid natural gas exports in the last decade (beautifully LINEAR and UPWARDS when plotted versus time and hence permitting qualified extrapolation), this decision of "5% decrease on the Domestic 2000 GHG pollution value by 2020" and official Labor policy of "60% decrease on the Domestic 2000 GHG pollution value by 2050” means that Australia's annual Domestic plus Exported greenhouse gas pollution (in Mt CO2-e = million tonnes of CO2-e) will INCREASE from 885 Mt (2000) and 1130 Mt (2008) to 1245 Mt (2020; an INCREASE of 41% over the 2000 value) to 1532 Mt (2050; an INCREASE of 73% over the 2000 value).

If one supposed that sanity broke out globally and that the rest of the world, except for Australia, immediately stopped any increase in greenhouse gas emissions, then it is estimated that Australia’s share of annual global GHG pollution would increase from 2.5% (2008) to 1245 x100 /44,115 = 2.8% (2020) and to 1586 x 100/44,456 = 3.6% (2050).

2000 Domestic per capita greenhouse gas production with land use change considered (or without land use change) was 25.9 (25.6) for Australia (i.e. ignoring Australia's huge coal Exports) versus 3.9 (3.9) for China and 6.8 (5.6) for the World (see “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas ).

As of 2008, “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO₂-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 2.2 (India), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO₂ pollution is included (see Wikipedia, “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita ; Dr Gideon Polya, “Pro-coal Australian Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) devalues Australian lives, threatens Biosphere and ignores Science”, 2009: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/latest-pro-coal-australian-emissions-trading-scheme-ets-devalues-australian-lives-threatens-biosphere-and-ignores-science-and-climate-emergency ; Michael Szabo, “Cut CO₂ to India’s level, top scientist urges”, Reuters, 28 May 2008: http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL28290944 ; Ross Garnaut, The Garnaut Climate Change Review, Chapter 7: http://www.garnautreview.org.au/chp7.htm ).

However Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter, the worst per capita greenhouse gas polluter in the developed world, and one of the worst annual per capita greenhouse polluters in the world as a whole – and it accordingly would be disingenuous and indeed dishonest to IGNORE Australia’s huge Exported CO₂ pollution in calculating Australia’s annual per capita GHG pollution. Thus if Australia didn’t extract fossil fuel and sell it then it this fuel wouldn’t get burned - we are responsible for our actions and the only way Australia would be innocent of the GHG pollution consequences of coal and LNG burning would be if it sold the coal and LNG overseas on the strict condition that it would NOT be burned).

Accordingly, in 2000 Australia’s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution (tonnes CO2-e per person per year) was 44.2 versus 3.9 for the annual per capita GHG pollution by China. Based on US EIA data projections and Labor GHG pollution policy (and assuming population stasis at 21 million) Australia’s Domestic plus Exported CO2-e pollution will reach 59 in 2020 (15 times China’s 2000 annual per capita GHG pollution value) and 75.5 by 2050 (19 times China’s 2000 value of 3.9; 33 times Pakistan’s 2000 value of 2.3; 40 times India’s 2000 value of 1.9; and 84 times Bangladesh’s 2000 value of 0.9) (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita ).

The extraordinary international disparity and the extraordinary current Australian “exceptionalism” (it is operationally OK for Australia but not for others; Australia will reduce its per capita GHG pollution only if China reduces its too) brings to mind other extraordinary mathematical statements of White Australian “exceptionalism” in relation to Chinese from Australia’s non-politically correct (non-PC) past.

Thus in 1947 then Labor Immigration Minister (and later Labor leader) Arthur Calwell notoriously stated that “Two Wongs do not make a White” (for context and documentation see p183, “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History. Colonial rapacity, holocaust denial and the crisis in biological sustainability“:http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/ )– however, as indicated above, current Australian Labor is evidently aiming for a circa twenty (20)-fold disparity.

Indeed way back in 1901, Edmund Barton (Australia’s first Prime Minister and Father of the notorious White Australia Policy aka the 1901 Immigration Restriction Act that was finally abolished by the 1975 Racial Discrimination Act) stated: “The doctrine of the equality of man was never intended to apply to the equality of an Englishman and a Chinaman” (for context and documentation see p179, “Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History. Colonial rapacity, holocaust denial and the crisis in biological sustainability“:http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/ ).

The effectively “business as usual” “5% reduction on 2000 GHG pollution level by 2020” must be unequivocally seen in the context that 16 million people already die avoidably annually due to increasingly global warming-impacted deprivation (see “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”: ) and that, according to top UK climate scientist Professor James Lovelock FRS (the Gaia hypothesis, “The Revenge of Gaia”), over 6 billion people will perish this century due to unaddressed man-made climate change (see: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/16956300/the_prophet_of_climate_change_james_lovelock ).

Indeed the scale of the actual and potential lethality of First World tardiness in response to the Climate Emergency – exemplified by the appalling conduct of Australia, the worst First World per capita GHG polluter - and First World demands that they will reduce their extremely high per capita GHG pollution if Developing countries reduce their already very low per capita GHG pollution, demands a new Climate Lexicon e.g. Climate Racism, Climate Politically-correct Racism, Climate PC Racism, Climate Exceptionalism, Climate Terrorism, Climate Terrorists, Climate Terror, Climate Criminal, Climate Crime, Climate Criminality, Climate Injustice, Climate Justice and Climate Genocide.

Indeed in 2008 a formal complaint was sent to the International Criminal Court in relation to Australian involvement in Climate Genocide (see: http://climateemergency.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html ).

Thus Article 2 of the UN Genocide Convention (see: http://www.edwebproject.org/sideshow/genocide/convention.html ) states that “In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, as such: (a) Killing members of the group; (b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; (d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.”

This formal complaint pointed out that “Australia is steadfast in its refusal to reduce its world leading annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution and has a major responsibility for the accelerating Climate Genocide that, as estimated by outstanding UK climate scientist Professor James Lovelock FRS, will affect billions; as reported by the Royal Society: “Even if we act now Professor Lovelock believes that six to eight billion humans will be faced with ever diminishing supplies of food and water in an increasingly intolerable climate and wildlife and whole ecosystems will become extinct” (see his recent lecture at the Royal Society: http://royalsociety.org/news.asp?id=7226 )” and that “Countries at major risk from sea level rises due to climate change include island nations in the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific (some of which face total extinction) and countries with mega-deltas in Europe, Africa, the Americas and Asia (of which some face catastrophic loss of agriculture and massive population displacements). Such Nations will be receiving copies of this formal complaint and are urged to transmit formal complaints to the International Criminal Court”.

Australian “exceptionalism” is put into stark contrast by the following values of “annual per capita fossil fuel-derived CO₂ pollution” (tonnes per person per year) estimated for 2004 using data from the US Energy Information Administration (see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/ ): 19.2 (for Australia; 40 if you include Australia’s coal exports), 19.7 (the US), 18.4 (Canada), 9.9 (Japan), 4.2 (the World), 3.6 (China), 1.0 ( India),Pakistan (0.7) and 0.25 (for Bangladesh).

Of course “annual per capita fossil fuel-derived CO₂ pollution” is but one – albeit a very important – indicator of climate impact. The Germanwatch Climate Change Index 2008, a comparison of the 56 top CO₂ emitting nations (see: http://www.germanwatch.org/ccpi.htm ), takes other parameters into account in ranking. In this ranking of 56 top CO₂ emitting nations, Sweden and Germany are #1 and #2 for greenhouse responsibility, while shale-oil-rich Canada (a US ally), coal-rich Australia (a US ally), the USA and oil-rich Saudi Arabia (US-linked) rank #53, #54, #55 and #56, respectively (see: http://www.germanwatch.org/ccpi.htm ) .

To assist public understanding of the issue here are some key estimates relating to “annual per capita GHG pollution” and deriving from authoritative primary data provided by the US Energy Information Administration (see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/ ) and the UN Population Division (see: http://esa.un.org/unpp/ ) and taking into account the OFFICIAL Australian 2020 targets of “5% reduction on 2000 Domestic GHG pollution by 2020” and “60% reduction on 2000 Domestic GHG pollution by 2050”..

Australia’s “annual LNG exports” (Mt CO₂ produced): 21.8 (2000), 28.4 (2008), 38.2 (2020), 62.8 (2050).

Australia’s “annual coal exports) (Mt CO₂ produced): 327.6 (2000), 474.3 (2008), 609.7 (2020), 1255.4 (2050).

Australia’s “annual Domestic GHG pollution) (Mt CO₂-e produced) : 535.3 (2000), 627.2 (2008), 508.5 (2020), 214.1 (2050).

Australia’s “annual Domestic & Exported GHG pollution” (Mt CO₂-e produced): 884.7 (2000), 1129.9 (2008), 1245.4 (2020), 1532.3 (2050).

Australia’s population (Millions): 19.1 (2000), 21.0 (2008), 23.4 (2020), 28.0 (2050).

Australia’s “annual per capita Domestic & Exported GHG pollution” (tonnes CO₂-e per person per year): 46.3 (2000), 53.8 (2008), 53.2 (2020), 54.7 (2050).

Australia’s “annual Domestic & Exported GHG pollution as % of 2000 value”: 100% (2000), 128% (2008), 141% (2020), 173% (2050).

As indicated above, Australia needs to REDUCE its “annual per capita Domestic & Exported” GHG pollution” by 90% to bring it back to the World average – but, in stark contrast, is set to INCREASE this under its quite FALSELY labelled “GHG pollution reduction” policies.

*** In 2010 the Victorian and Federal Labor Governments approved brown coal exports from Victoria that are expected to reach 20 million tonnes (74 million tonnes CO2) . If this is achieved by 2020 then Australia's Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution in 2020 will be 1245.4 + 74 = 1319.4 Mt = 149% of that in 2000. Based on UN Population Division population projections, Australia’s 2020 annual per capita Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution is accordingly projected to reach 1319 Mt CO2-e/ 23.4 million people = 56 tonnes CO2-e per person per year, 62 times that of Bangladesh, a densely populated country acutely threatened by inundation from mainly First World-imposed GHG pollution.

According to Professor Andy Pitman (University of New South Wales, a top Australian climate scientist and a lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) “The basic science says we need to try to keep CO₂ and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere below 450 parts per million equivalent, which is the bundle of all the greenhouse gases” (see ABC report: http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:LaR4V48Pn7gJ:www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/printfriendly.pl%3Fhttp://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2306464.htm+abc+%22andy+pitman+%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au ) . In response to the Labor Government announcement of “5% reduction on 2000 GHG pollution by 2020” Professor Pitman has stated on Australia’s ABC Radio National that we need to keep atmospheric CO₂ to below 450 ppm to avoid a catastrophic 2 degrees C temperature rise and that means global 25%-50% reduction on 2000 GHG pollution by 2020.

The Australian Government’s falsely named “Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme” has a highly flawed Emissions Trading System (ETS) as an INDIRECT mechanism of Government intervention in “the market” to supposedly get “the market” (the actual source of the Climate Emergency problem) to moved to a solution. The Australian ETS is highly flawed Cap and Trade system and, in short, is based on a Cap that will destroy the Great Barrier Reef , ignores 2/3 of Australian GHG sources and absurdly RETURNS a large part of the Government receipts for “licences to pollute” to the major polluters (for detailed critique see “Australian Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme will INCREASE Carbon Pollution”: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/australian-carbon-pollution-reduction-scheme-will-increase-carbon-pollution ) .

The self-absorbed and “exceptionalist” Australian Government, media, politicians and people simply don’t understand the International Legal principle that just as we are held responsible for out actions that damage others at a national level, so this also applies at an International level (as exampled by huge compensation cases for disasters associated with pollution from mining). Thus a UK organization Bring Climate Criminals to Justice (BCCJ) has an aim “To establish a legal process in the UK and abroad to facilitate the criminal prosecution of Government Ministers and key business leaders whose policies and activities contribute to the mass loss of life which Climate Change is certain to now cause” and is particularly concerned with ALREADY HAPPENING damage to Bangladesh and “Working to ensure UK environmental campaign groups re-focus campaigning, uniting to call for the criminal prosecution and imprisonment of the worst offenders” (see: http://www.climate-criminals.co.uk/ ). As outlined above, a formal complaint outlining Australian complicity in Climate Genocide was sent to the International Criminal Court in 2008 (see: http://climateemergency.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html ).

Sanctions and Boycotts were successfully applied to the Apartheid régime of South Africa for denying equal rights and one-man-one-vite to Africans, Chinese and Indians in South Africa. Australia, accordingly, must be at serious risk of Sanctions, Boycotts, Green Tariff and Reparations Demands over the damage it is already causing and the huge threat it poses to billions of people and the very existence of some Island States through its remorseless, world leading per capita greenhouse gas pollution.

A fundamental key issue is Public Honesty in Word and Deed. Thus it is egregiously dishonest for the Australian Government to call a scheme that will INCREASE Australia’s GHG pollution as a “”Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme”. Further, the Rudd Labor Government was elected in 2007 with Climate Change as a major public concern – however, in 2008 Australia’s annual Domestic and Exported Greenhouse Gas (GHG) pollution INCREASED by 2.1% from that in 2007 under the Coalition Federal Government and , barring recession effects, is expected in 2009 to have increased by 6.5% over that in 2007 (see “Australia INCREASED Greenhouse Gas pollution in 2008 by 2% over 2007”: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/australia-increased-greenhouse-pollution-in-2008 ).

Even if we set aside the argument about required GHG pollution reduction between expert scientists VERSUS industry, the coal industry and the Liberal-Labor (lib-Lab) political consensus, there is a fundamental issue of public honesty and zero tolerance for lying (by omission or commission) that is absolutely required for rational risk management in the interests of public safety and national security. Unfortunately a Letter recently sent to about 3,000 State and Federal MPs, many non-science academics, media and other influential Australians – a Letter that made this fundamental risk management point with numerous examples of huge realities (including Climate Emergency realities such as the likely destruction of the Great Barrier Reef) that are IGNORED by Mainstream media, politicians and academics and pleaded for them to inform others (see “Climate Emergency, Exceptionalism & Ignoring Downunder. Letter to eminent Australians over public honesty”: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/25702/42/ ) – resulted in a mere 0.2% of recipients responding by saying that they would inform others about the shocking but IGNORED facts I reported.

Finally, the sheer IRRESPONSIBILITY, GREED and policy FAILURE implicit in the Developed World’s worst per capita GHG polluter, Australia, committing to a derisory “5% reduction on 2000 GHG pollution by 2020” is in STARK CONTRAST to the Climate Emergency Facts (from top Australian and world climate scientists) and the Climate Emergency Actions required to deal with the Climate Emergency that are summarized below (see “Climate Emergency Facts and Required Actions” on the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group’s website: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-emergency-facts-and-required-actions ; for other detailed, quantitative and well-referenced analyses relating to the Climate Emergency see the following articles and fact sheets placed on the Web by the Melbourne-based Yarra Valley Climate Action Group: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/system/app/pages/sitemap/hierarchy ).

Climate Emergency Facts and Required Actions

Just as we turn to top medical specialists for advice on life-threatening disease, so we turn to the opinions of top scientists and in particular top biological and climate scientists for Climate Change risk assessment and Climate Emergency Facts and requisite Actions as exampled below (for detailed documentation of everything below see the Yarra Valley Climate Action Group website: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/Home ).

Professor James Hansen (top US climate scientist, head, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies): “We face a climate emergency”.

Nobel Laureate Professor Peter Doherty: “We are in real danger.”

Professor David de Kretser AC (eminent medical scientist and Governor of Victoria, Australia) “There is no doubt in my mind that this is the greatest problem confronting mankind at this time and that it has reached the level of a state of emergency.”

Dr Andrew Glikson (palaeo-climate scientist, ANU): “The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has … raised CO₂ levels to 387 ppm CO₂ to date, leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO₂ levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres.”

Major Climate Emergency Facts

1. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration has increased to 387 parts per million (ppm) as compared to 280 ppm pre-industrial and is increasing at about 2.5 ppm per year with average global temperature about 0.8 degrees C above the pre-industrial.

2. Man-made global warming due to greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution from carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxides is already associated with major ecosystem damage (Arctic, ocean, coral reefs), melting of glaciers and Arctic sea ice, sea level rise, methane release from melting tundra and positive feed-back effects accelerating GHG pollution and warming.

3. Consequences of atmospheric CO₂ concentration increase and warming to current 387 ppm: major ecosystem damage; current species extinction rates are 100-1,000 times greater than previously; to over 400 ppm: “new territory” not seen for millions of years with acute dangers from positive feedbacks; to over 450 ppm: major damage and death to coral reefs and associated fisheries; to over 500 ppm: major loss of ocean phytoplankton, ocean life, cloud seeding, the Greenland ice sheet and densely populated global coastal regions due to massive sea level rises.

Climate Emergency Actions URGENTLY Required

1. Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying.

2. Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO₂ to a safe level of less than 350 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists.

3. Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth.

PLEASE TELL EVERYONE YOU CAN.